And the Winner is...Whatever

It's Oscar time again. How do you make a fluffy extravagance relevant in the face of hardening times? Make it about triumphs over adversity. I have no doubt that will be the theme of these awards, and I also have no doubt that for some reason I really don't care about who is honored this year and who goes home empty-handed. For the first time I've actually seen all five best-picture nominees, as well as most of the other nominated films/performances, and I have to say that 2008 was a mediocre year for movies indeed. Any of the nominees for best documentary are better films than the best picture nominees, which is saying something about the state of fictional storytelling in this culture. Having said that, here are my guesses:

Best Picture and Best Director: Slumdog Millionaire and Danny Boyle. This is only fine with me in that it prevents both The Reader and Benjamin Button from winning. I thought BB was Forest Gump with makeup (and that it will win for makeup), and a gross mismanagement of a terrific short story, and that The Reader just wasn't very good. If the decision were up to me the award would go to Frost/Nixon. It's hard to adapt a play for the screen, and this was a terrific adaptation. Slumdog, though, has the momentum, is a little film that had to fight to get distributed, and is in fact about the triumph of love and intelligence over horrifying odds. Feel good, folks, feel good.

Best Actor: No one has overcome more than Mickey Rourke, so he gets the Oscar. His performance was the one interesting thing about a mediocre film, so there is that. Frank Langella should win this, but he won't.

Best Actress: Kate Winslett for her body (of work). Not for The Reader, although her performance was predictably good, but because she's overdue. Melissa Leo should take this, but she won't. Feel good, Kate's finally getting her due.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger overcomes death. The Dark Night should get cinematography, editing, and a host of other technical awards. It should have been nominated for best picture. Oh well.

Best Supporting Actress: Nate Silver thinks this will go to that woman from Benjamin Button, and he's usually right about things. However, since overcoming adversity is the theme, I'm going to predict Penelope Cruz overcoming the fact that she was nominated for a Woody Allen film. Plus, she was better.

Screenplays: I'm too lazy to double-check who's nominated. In an ideal world, Frost/Nixon for adapted, Frozen River for original. And maybe this will be the case. Frozen River is, after all, a little film that could, and screenplay is the category where little films that could get recognized. It would also be a feel good award.

Best Documentary: Man on Wire has momentum and was one of the best pictures of the year. This is a competetive category, though, and Herzog will probably get the Kate Winslet treatment. He's overdue, and it would be an award we can all feel good about.

A bunch of other awards will also be handed out, but I can't bring myself to care. My final prediction, and the one that will absolutely be true: someone will be wearing a dress so awful, so cringe-worthy, that the hours of my life spent watching the telecast will have been hours well-spent.

Appoint Me

Yesterday's news about the Illinois governor was quite serendipitous, because I'm getting my hair cut this morning and was looking for a new, hip style, and now I've found one. Hot! It occurs to me that given yesterday's events the Senate seat in question is now somewhat toxic in that an appointment by this guy would be the kiss of political death. It also occurs to me that the seat will no longer go to the highest bidder, but instead to whatever fool is willing to bid. That fool is me.

I don't have a lot to offer, but here's what I can do:

1. I can speak to the new owners of my magazine, who I understand are looking for an ad sales rep. This would be the perfect job for either Blagojevich or his wife, because in this economy strong-arming can only help. It wouldn't pay $300K a year, but it's better than nothing.

2. I doubt re-election campaign contributions are needed at this point, but I would be happy to donate $50 to a legal defense fund.

3. One of our local papers is owned by the Tribune Company. I have absolutely no sway with the editorial board, but I promise to go to the online comments page and spam it with supportive posts.

4. I know a member of the SEIU. He might be able to help arrange a position as a medical assistant at the children's hospital of Blagojevich's choice. After all, the Governor's resume indicates a skill at shoveling shit, which is just a step away from bedpans.

5. Because I don't live in Illinois, I have absolutely nothing at stake and couldn't care less about "constituents." Each and every one of my votes in the Senate can therefore be sold to the highest bidder, and I'll give the Governor his take, say 10 points. Top that offer, Jesse Jackson Jr.

Oscar Pick-A-Mix

Because it's snowing and I'm bored, here are the Synthetic Culture Oscar predictions (or at least my predictions as of this morning):

- The writer's strike will be the butt of a joke in the first 5 seconds of Jon Stewart's monologue

- Heath Ledger will be featured prominently in the Montage of the Dead

- The performances of the original songs and accompanying dance numbers will be the best time to go refill your drink

- 99% of the country hasn't seen four of the five best picture nominees, so the evening's focus will be on couture and the end of the writer's strike

- The writer's strike will be mentioned approximately 18 times during the broadcast

- The nominees are all depressing; let's talk about the writer's strike

Enough of that. Who will walk away with a statue? Take my advice and you'll win your Oscar pool:

Daniel Day-Lewis (Leading Actor) will be rewarded for his ability to chew up both scenes and scenery and spit while doing so.

Javier Bardem (Supporting Actor) will be rewarded for reminding America of the perils of a Price Valiant haircut.

Julie Christie (Leading Actress) will be rewarded for providing Hollywood a chance to pretend that good acting is appreciated in actresses over the age of 30.

Ruby Dee (Supporting Actress) will be rewarded for still being alive, and for being the best thing about a surprisingly boring film.

Ratatouille (Animated Feature) will be rewarded for being a Pixar product.

No End in Sight (Documentary Feature) will be rewarded because at this point everyone hates the war.

Juno (Original Screenplay) will be rewarded because everyone loves a literate stripper. See, they aren't all working their way through community college.

There Will Be Blood (Adapted Screenplay) will be rewarded for tremendous and sincere effort, plus a lot of spitting.

No Country For Old Men (Best Picture) will be rewarded for having a shorter running time than There Will Be Blood.

Best Director is a toss-up - will the Academy do a split in order to give PT Anderson another nod, or will voters line up behind the Coen brothers? My guess is the Coens sweep, but we'll have to wait until Sunday to see. Happy Oscar party to everyone!

Update! What will Atonement win, you ask? Costume design and Original Score and that's it. Give Film Editing to No Country. The Diving Bell and Butterfly needs to be recognized even though it was made in France by an artist wearing a sarong, so it will take Cinematography. I think that's it for the major categories, except all the shorts and Foreign Language Film. For those categories, you're all on your own.